Ben Kenney
August 15, 2024 7:09 am CT
The 2024 Big Ten football season is challenging to predict. As is the case across college football, there is little precedent for all that is different entering the season.
Just in the Big Ten, there is a shifting power dynamic due to the arrival of newcomers USC, UCLA, Washington and Oregon. The conference also eliminated its East-West division model. So the round-robin format enters the season with the AP Poll No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Oregon, No. 8 Penn State, No. 9 Michigan, No. 23 USC and No. 25 Iowa, plus several more tough matchups with Nebraska, Washington, Rutgers and Wisconsin.
Related: Ranking all 18 Big Ten football teams in championship tiers entering 2024 season
The standard for success grew significantly. It will now likely be easier to make the College Football Playoff than win, or even make, the Big Ten title game. 2024 should teach us a lot about how the future of the conference will look.
To learn more about 2024, ESPN FPI recently updated its matchup predictor. That means, thanks to percentage chances for every game on the schedule, it has updated final win totals for every team across the sport. Here is ESPN FPI’s updated projection of the final 2024 Big Ten standings:
18
Purdue Boilermakers
Nov 18, 2023; Evanston, Illinois, USA; Purdue Boilermakers head coach Ryan Walters watches his team play against the Northwestern Wildcats at Ryan Field. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports
17
Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State’s head coach Jonathan Smith looks on during the Spring Showcase on Saturday, April 20, 2024, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. Credit: Nick King/Lansing State Journal-USA TODAY NETWORK
Projected Record: 4.8 — 7.2
FPI Ranking: No. 68 (-1.0)
2024 is a rebuilding year for Michigan State, especially with Oregon, Iowa, Michigan and Ohio State on the schedule. Its success will ride on the development of young QB Aidan Chiles, who followed HC Jonathan Smith over from Oregon State.
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16
Illinois Fighting Illini
Nov 11, 2023; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema reacts to a call during the second half against the Indiana Hoosiers at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Projected Record: 5.3 — 6.7
FPI Ranking: No. 62 (0.2)
The road isn’t getting any easier for Bret Bielema and Illinois. The elimination of the Big Ten West means a tougher schedule, and a near-impossible path to the Big Ten title game. That’s the case in 2024 with games against Kansas, Penn State, Michigan and Oregon.
Full 2024 Illinois Fighting Illiniteam preview
15
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Nov 26, 2022; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers head coach P.J. Fleck stands before taking the field prior to the game against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Projected Record: 5.3 — 6.7
FPI Ranking: No. 61 (0.4)
2024 could be make-or-break for Minnesota. P.J. Fleck returns most of his 2023 team, plus welcomes in former FCS passing leader QB Max Brosmer. The Gophers need a strong performance after a 6-7 2023 campaign.
14
Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti looks on during the Indiana football spring game at Memorial Stadium on Thursday, April 18, 2024. Credit: Bobby Goddin/Herald-Times-USA TODAY NETWORK
Projected Record: 5.3 — 6.7
FPI Ranking: No. 77 (-2.4)
Indiana is by far FPI’s lowest-ranked Big Ten team. But a projected 5-7 record is thanks to one of the easier schedules in the conference. New head coach Curt Cignetti has certainly made headlines since Big Ten media days in July. He will have a real chance to back up the building excitement.
13
Northwestern Wildcats
Nov 4, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Northwestern Wildcats head coach David Braun looks on during the first half against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
Projected Record: 5.5 — 6.5
FPI Ranking: No. 57 (1.3)
2024 can’t possibly be as successful as 2023 was for the Wildcats. New head coach David Braun took over amid turmoil and somehow led the team to an 8-5 record. Regression is a certainty with the Big Ten West no longer in existence and the schedule increasing in difficulty.
12
UCLA Bruins
Feb 13, 2024; Los Angeles, CA, USA; UCLA Bruins athletic director Martin Jarmond, right, with new head football coach DeShaun Foster during a press conference at Pauley Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Projected Record: 5.5 — 6.5
FPI Ranking: No. 40 (4.9)
New head coach DeShaun Foster is tasked with a tough job in 2024. UCLA is now without ace offensive mind Chip Kelly (Ohio State OC) and top-end defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn (USC DC). The team went 8-5 a season ago, but could face early growing pains in the Big Ten.
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11
Wisconsin Badgers
Oct 14, 2023; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Luke Fickell during the game against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Projected Record: 5.8 — 6.2
FPI Ranking: No. 39 (5.0)
ESPN FPI isn’t high on Wisconsin’s chances in 2024. It has Wisconsin as a fringe top-40 team, and lists it as an underdog in seven of 12 games on the schedule (vs. Alabama, at USC, at Rutgers, vs. Penn State, at Iowa, vs. Oregon, at Nebraska). Bowl eligibility, in ESPN FPI’s eyes, would be a win.
Full 2024 Wisconsin Badgersteam preview
10
Washington Huskies
Jul 25, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Washington Huskies head coach Jedd Fisch speaks to the media during the Big 10 football media day at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports
Projected Record: 6.4 — 5.6
FPI Ranking: No. 31 (6.7)
The 2024 Washington Huskies will be close to 100% different from the team that lost in the national title game last season. New head coach Jedd Fisch is tasked with somehow maintaining the program’s top-end success after Kalen DeBoer left for Alabama. Fisch will win at Washington, but 2024 may be a bit too early for high expectations.
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9
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Nov 18, 2023; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Matt Rhule walks the sidelines during the fourth quarter against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Projected Record: 6.5 — 5.5
FPI Ranking: No. 41 (4.8)
ESPN FPI shares the consensus opinion that Nebraska is trending up under Matt Rhule. That, and the team’s schedule is one of the easier in the conference. There’s a real chance the Cornhuskers are 7-0 when they visit Ohio State on Oct. 26. This is the best sleeper pick to make the conference title game.
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8
Maryland Terrapins
Dec 30, 2023; Nashville, TN, USA; Maryland Terrapins head coach Mike Locksley waits to take the field before the game against the Auburn Tigers at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
Projected Record: 6.6 — 5.4
FPI Ranking: No. 46 (4.1)
This projection for Maryland may be a bit optimistic. The team is off consecutive 8-5 seasons, but a big question exists at quarterback after the departure of Taulia Tagovailoa. That negative is weighed against the positive of the elimination of the Big Ten East. Either way, the 8-5 pace will be tough to maintain.
7
Iowa Hawkeyes
Oct 14, 2023; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes head coach Kirk Ferentz looks on during warmups prior to the game against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Projected Record: 7.0 — 5.0
FPI Ranking: No. 37 (5.6)
Iowa has a manageable schedule in 2024, missing top-ranked Oregon, Penn State and Michigan. The team also projects to be better on offense, finally, with new OC Tim Lester. Plus it’s Iowa. The program could face Ohio State every week and still go 8-4.
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6
USC Trojans
Oct 7, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches game action against the Arizona Wildcats during the second half at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Projected Record: 7.1 — 5.1
FPI Ranking: No. 18 (11.1)
USC’s long-term prospects look better than they do entering 2024. New DC D’Anton Lynn should help the unit improve after several years as one of the worst defenses in the nation. But 2024 should see an adjustment period for Lincoln Riley’s team. It faces LSU to open the season before Big Ten games against Michigan, Penn State and Nebraska, then a finale against Notre Dame. A 10-win season would be a major accomplishment against that schedule.
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5
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Nov 25, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights head coach Greg Schiano runs out to the field with his team before the game against the Maryland Terrapins at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Projected Record: 7.2 — 4.8
FPI Ranking: No. 45 (4.1)
Rutgers is the projected No. 5 team in the Big Ten for two reasons. First, it has the easiest schedule in the conference with only one top-25 opponent (USC). Second, it returns nearly an entire 2023 team that went 7-6 and was trending even better.
Rutgers could realistically make the playoff while not being one of the 25 ‘best’ teams in the country. The schedule is that easy.
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4
Michigan Wolverines
Jan 8, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; Michigan Wolverines offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore against the Washington Huskies during the 2024 College Football Playoff national championship game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Projected Record: 8.3 — 3.9
FPI Ranking: No. 12 (14.9)
Another 15-0 national title season is unlikely for Michigan. New head coach Sherrone Moore must overcome significant roster and coaching staff turnover. The baseline of talent and culture is strong enough that the Wolverines should still win 9-10 games and contend for the conference.
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3
Penn State Nittany Lions
Nov 24, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin leads his team on to the field before the game against Michigan State at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports
Projected Record: 10.1 — 2.3
FPI Ranking: No. 6 (19.6)
No program will benefit from the Big Ten’s elimination of divisions more than Penn State. The Nittany Lions can now finish right behind Ohio State, as they’ve done for years, and make the Big Ten title game or College Football Playoff.
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2
Ohio State Buckeyes
Nov 25, 2023; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day leaves the field following the NCAA football game against the Michigan Wolverines at Michigan Stadium. Ohio State lost 30-24. Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch-USA TODAY NETWORK
Projected Record: 10.2 — 2.2
FPI Ranking: No. 4 (22.2)
The Big Ten has a clear top tier in 2024 of Ohio State and Oregon. FPI has the Buckeyes at No. 2 in the conference, though still up with the top teams in the nation. The Buckeyes vs. the Ducks will be a fascinating battle to watch play out this fall.
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1
Oregon Ducks
Jan 1, 2024; Glendale, AZ, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning speaks with the official on the sideline during the second quarter against the Liberty Flames in the 2024 Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Projected Record: 10.8 — 1.8
FPI Ranking: No. 2 (24.5)
Oregon is well-equipped to win immediately upon joining the Big Ten this fall. ESPN FPI expects more from the program, and has it up with Ohio State and Georgia as the favorites to win the national title.
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